Small businesses report record confidence heading into the second half of 2026, according to a joint study by lender OnDeck and analytics firm Ocrolus.
Growth expectations hit historic highs
Nearly nine in ten owners—93 percent—said they anticipate growth over the next twelve months. Almost a third of those respondents expect that growth to be significant, marking an all‑time high for the metric. The optimism appears to be driving a shift in how owners approach planning and investment.
Cash flow tops the worry list
While confidence rises, cash flow emerged as the leading concern for 31 percent of participants, the first time the issue has led the rankings. Inflation, long a dominant worry, slipped to second place at 29 percent. Interest rates, consumer spending and trade policy rounded out the list, but each registered well below the top two concerns.
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Credit sources move away from banks
More than three‑quarters of the surveyed businesses—76 percent—reported bypassing traditional banks when seeking capital, another record figure for the study. Access to credit was named the most important factor shaping 2026 strategies for 46 percent of owners. Consumer spending followed at 42 percent, and interest rates were cited by 35 percent.
AI tools gain traction
AI adoption continues to climb, with 58 percent of owners indicating they now use AI tools. Among those users, 89 percent reported a positive impact on operations, ranging from pricing adjustments to supplier selection. The report’s authors attribute the uptick to better data visibility and more precise financial modeling.
“They are showing a high level of adaptability as they move through 2026,” said David Snitkof. “Whether it’s adjusting pricing, exploring new suppliers, or leveraging AI, owners are making deliberate choices supported by better data and clearer visibility into their financial performance.”
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Strategic priorities shift toward growth
Owners say the primary goal for the coming months is to expand operations. Cory Kampfer, Co‑President of Small Business Lending at Enova, emphasized that businesses are not slowing down. “They aren’t slowing down; they’re planning ahead, investing in growth and finding new ways to operate more efficiently,” he said.
Trade policy and other macro‑economic risks were mentioned by only 14 percent of respondents, suggesting that most owners are focusing on immediate operational concerns rather than broader geopolitical trends.
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