Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb stated that Pakistan could achieve a B+ sovereign credit rating by the end of FY27 or the first quarter of FY28 if the country maintains its macroeconomic stability and implements structural reforms. He emphasized that it is premature to consider the current $7 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) as Pakistan’s last IMF program.
Aurangzeb projected a 4% economic growth in FY27, up from 3.7% in FY26, and expected the current account deficit to remain within 0-1% of GDP. He noted that global rating agencies have upgraded Pakistan three times since April 2025, with the current rating being B with a stable outlook by S&P Global Ratings and B3 from Caa1 with a stable outlook by Moody’s.
Macroeconomic Stability and Reforms
Aurangzeb attributed the recent upgrades to improvements in the external economy, including record remittance inflows and foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP). The SBP-held foreign exchange reserves reached a record $21.44 billion in September 2026, providing around three months of import cover.
The finance minister emphasized the importance of making recent economic gains permanent, rather than returning to the boom-and-bust cycle that has repeatedly followed periods of stabilization. He stressed that growth should come from productivity, investment, exports, and employment, rather than temporary injections of liquidity and consumption-led expansion.
Aurangzeb highlighted the government’s six economic priorities, which include making macroeconomic stability permanent, achieving sustainable and inclusive growth, and continuing structural reforms. He also emphasized the need to deepen capital markets and shift economic relationships from aid towards trade and investment.
Investment and Economic Growth
The finance minister pointed to the participation of major Pakistani business groups in the consortium for the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) transaction, involving Arif Habib, representing close to $1.2 billion in collective investment. He noted that international investor interest is increasing, with Turkish interest in the privatization of electricity distribution companies and interest from US, Saudi, and other international investors across various sectors.
Aurangzeb emphasized that the private sector should lead investment and economic growth, while the government creates the necessary policy and regulatory environment. He highlighted the importance of policy continuity, effective facilitation, and a conducive investment ecosystem to attract foreign investment.
The government has also seen a sharp expansion in participation at the Pakistan Stock Exchange, with the investor base more than doubling to 656,218 from 321,144 in March 2024. The KSE-100 Index has climbed from around 67,000 points in March 2024 to around 170,000 points, and 11 companies have come to the market during FY26, the highest number in more than two decades.
Aurangzeb stressed that the objective extends beyond gains in the benchmark index, with market confidence needing to translate into capital formation for businesses, infrastructure, housing, innovation, and employment. He highlighted the importance of REITs as a mechanism for mobilizing investment into housing and real estate, with the recent offering of Naya Nazimabad Apartments REIT attracting around eight times subscription during book-building and 4.3 times subscription in the general public offering.
Under the Prime Minister’s Apna Ghar Programme, around Rs60 billion has already been financed, while banks have approved an additional financing pipeline of approximately Rs340 billion that is awaiting disbursement. Aurangzeb emphasized the role of private developers in converting available financing into construction, investment, and employment, and called for greater access to finance for SMEs, agriculture, housing, and other underserved segments.
Structural reforms have moved beyond the design phase and into execution, covering taxation, energy, state-owned enterprises, privatization, and public finance. The number of tax filers has crossed 5.7 million, compared with around 3.9 million last year and approximately 1.8-1.9 million in 2022. Revenue mobilization will continue alongside taxpayer facilitation, with greater use of data and digitalization to strengthen tax administration.
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